Poll: Trump struggles on immigration, prices and Iran as Democrats hold a midterm edge

Majorities of registered voters disapprove of how President Donald Trump has handled the issues that defined the first months of a tumultuous midterm election year, as Democrats maintain an advantage in the battle for control of Congress, according to a new national NBC News poll.

Voters give Trump poor marks for his handling of immigration after his administration surged federal agents into the heart of American cities and immigration officers in Minnesota killed two U.S. citizens in January. They are down on his tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down his main tariff program in February and Trump later reimposed some of those levies.

And they don’t like his actions on Iran, with the U.S. now at war with the nation after Trump ordered strikes starting last weekend — strikes a majority say should not have happened.

Meanwhile, voters continue to disapprove sharply of Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living, issues that were key to his 2024 victory and remain among Americans’ top concerns heading into the midterm elections.

Against that backdrop, Democrats have a 6-point lead in the fight for control of Congress, where Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both the House and Senate. The survey was conducted Feb. 27 to March 3, as the war with Iran began and the first primaries of the midterm elections occurred.

There are bright spots for the president and warning signs for Democrats, too. Trump continues to receive stronger marks for his handling of border security, a longtime signature issue, according to the poll, and voters still trust his party more than Democrats to handle both border security and immigration. There are signs of support for his focus on illegal voting, too, as the president seeks to make that a central political issue, though documented instances of voting by ineligible people are rare.

And Republicans narrow the Democratic advantage when voters are asked to weigh which party they think would do a better job of handling their most important issues. Most voters, including a sizable portion of self-identified Democrats, continue to view the Democratic Party negatively, continuing a trend in the aftermath of the 2024 election. The Republican Party also gets negative ratings, though not to the same degree.

“The electoral data points, together with views of President Trump and majorities disapproving of his actions on Iran and inflation, and the profound levels of anger at the establishment — all point to an American electorate that is once again fed up with those in power and looking for change wherever they can find it,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey alongside Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

Trump’s struggles persist

Trump’s job approval rating is at 44% — essentially stable since the NBC News poll conducted in October, when it was 43% among registered voters — with 54% of voters disapproving of Trump’s performance as president. A majority (56%) also say Trump is either bringing the wrong kind of change or not bringing change at all, while 41% say he is bringing the right kind of change.

Across five issues tested, voters give the president their lowest marks on the economy, with 62% disapproving of Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living and 36% approving. It’s an issue Democrats are trying to capitalize on heading into the midterms, after the party’s candidates found success on the issue in 2025, even as Trump has tried to change the narrative on the economy.

Nearly half of voters (48%) say Trump’s policies have hurt the economy, while 35% say they have helped and 16% say they have not made much of a difference. It’s a turnaround from Trump’s first term, when more voters said his policies helped (41%) than hurt (26%).

Voters are particularly frustrated by Trump’s tariffs, with 55% saying they have hurt the economy and 33% saying they have helped.

Just over 1 in 4 voters (27%) say their own financial situation is getting better, while 38% say it is getting worse and 35% say it is staying about the same.

Trump also receives mixed reviews on two of his signature issues: border security and immigration.

While 53% of voters approve of Trump’s handling of border security, 54% disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration amid pushback on the administration’s mass deportation policies and the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minnesota earlier this year. The survey was conducted before Trump fired Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, the administration’s most public face of the policies carried out by Immigration and Customs Enforcement as well as Border Patrol.

More than half of voters say they have negative views of ICE, while 38% have positive views of the agency.

But that doesn’t mean voters want to bar local law enforcement from working with federal immigration officials, the policy of so-called sanctuary cities. A plurality of voters (43%) say they have negative feelings about sanctuary cities, while 33% view them positively and 10% were unsure how they felt about them.

American voters’ overall feelings about immigration continue to fluctuate in the Trump era, with 60% saying immigration helps the United States more than it hurts, while 32% say immigration does more damage to the country. Shortly before Trump’s election in 2024, 50% said immigration helps more than hurts, while 43% said it hurts more than helps.

The survey also shows division on another issue that is top of mind for Trump: elections. Trump has been pushing new legislation to overhaul the country’s voting laws, repeating his false claims that the 2020 election was stolen.

A slim majority (51%) say they are more concerned with making sure that those who are not eligible to vote cannot vote, while 47% say they are more concerned with ensuring that everyone who wants to vote can do so.

That’s a significant shift from an NBC News poll in April 2021, when 58% said they were more concerned with ensuring everyone who wants to vote can do so, while 38% said they wanted to ensure that those who are not eligible to vote cannot vote.

Democrats lead in the fight for Congress

As both parties begin to nominate candidates for this year’s midterm elections, Democrats continue to hold an edge on the generic congressional ballot: 50% of registered voters say they’d prefer Democrats win control of Congress this fall, compared to 44% who prefer Republican control. That’s just a slight change from October, the last time this question was asked on the NBC News survey.

The 6-point edge sits in the middle of the range seen at this point in past election cycles — higher than the 2-point Republican advantage in a March 2022 NBC News poll and lower than the 10-point Democrats advantage in a March 2018 NBC News poll. Democrats need a net gain of only three seats to capture the majority in the U.S. House, while the Senate remains more of an uphill battle.

Voters are already plugged into the elections, with 64% rating their interest in the election as either a 9 or a 10 on a 10-point scale — higher than usual for this point in an election cycle, and more in line with typical levels of enthusiasm in NBC News polling conducted just before an election day.

Seventy-four percent of Democrats say they have that high interest (a 9 or 10 out of 10) in the fall’s election, compared to 61% of Republicans.

Two issues are weighing on Americans’ minds more than others as they prepare to make their voices heard at the ballot box: inflation and the cost of living, and threats to democracy. Each of these issues was named by 26% of voters as the most important issue facing the country. Another 13% chose immigration and border security, while 11% chose jobs and the economy.

When voters’ top two issues were combined, 48% chose inflation and costs, 36% chose threats to democracy, 25% chose immigration and border security and 24% chose jobs and the economy, while 21% chose the cost of health care premiums, 16% chose availability of affordable housing and 10% chose crime.

For the second poll in a row, Democrats have pulled even with Republicans on the question of which party would do better dealing with the economy, with 40% of registered voters choosing each party. It’s Republicans’ worst showing on that question in NBC News polling since December 2017.

“Democrats had an advantage on the economy” in previous years when they’ve enjoyed big election wins, said McInturff, the Republican pollster from Public Opinion Strategies. “So what we’re used to is, when Republicans are in deep trouble, it’s usually because Republicans start losing the economic agenda.”

McInturff cautioned that while “this is not a great survey for Republicans” as it relates to the midterms, the GOP is not in as bad shape as it was ahead of the 2006 and 2018 elections, two midterms where Democrats dominated.

He pointed to an about-even split in how many voters identify with each party. When asked which party voters think would do better handling their top issues, Democrats had a 48%-45% advantage — an edge, but a smaller one than on the question of whom voters would like to see control Congress.

When it comes to other issues, Republicans continue to hold a significant advantage on dealing with border security, crime and immigration over Democrats, but their edge has gone down since NBC News’ poll in late October.

Then, Republicans had a 31-point advantage on which party voters think would do a better job dealing with border security and an 18-point advantage on dealing with immigration, but those advantages have dipped to 27 points and 12 points in the latest survey.

Democrats retained their edge on protecting constitutional rights (+7) and protecting democracy (+11), while their lead on dealing with health care dropped slightly, from 23 points in October to 20 points in the new survey.

The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters Feb. 27-March 3 via a mix of telephone interviews and an online survey sent via text message. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com