Rigging the map? How power in US Congress is likely to shift after supreme court ruling and redistricting fights

Republicans and Democrats have been engaged in a political tug of war in legislatures, courts and the ballot box to narrow the battlefield of 2026 before a single vote is cast.

Normally, redistricting only occurs after the US census counts residents in each state every 10 years. A demand from Donald Trump to lock in more Republican-leaning districts in Congress, together with a changing legal landscape around partisan gerrymandering, set off a chain of mid-decade reapportionments.

Republicans hold control of the US House with a 217-212 margin with four vacancies as of 28 April, one of the smallest majorities in American history.

After successful efforts to redraw maps in states including Texas, California, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia, Democrats are looking at a one-seat advantage coming out of their efforts, with 10 new districts drawn in their favor compared with Republicans’ nine. That may change to a plus-three advantage for Republicans if Florida legislators approve a new congressional district map released on Monday.

On 29 April, the stakes became even higher with a decision in the landmark supreme court case, Louisiana v Callais, which makes it more difficult to prove a congressional map is racially discriminatory. Republicans could pursue new maps in the wake of the decision, though the timeline makes their ability to do so before the midterms uncertain.

The Guardian used data from the Cook Political Report and local media to tabulate the aspirations of leaders in each state where redistricting before the 2026 midterms has been contemplated to see what midterm maps could look like if both parties achieve all their redistricting ambitions.

Texas

Redistricting goal: +5 seats for Republicans

Texas was the first to conduct mid-decade redistricting, ramming it through the open revolt of minority-party Democrats in the legislature in August. The redistricting changes results based on the 2024 vote from a 25-13 Republican margin to 30-8, with seven Republican districts within a 10-point margin. Voting rights groups have challenged the redistricting on racial gerrymandering grounds, but the law has been enacted.

California

Redistricting goal: +5 seats for Democrats

California’s legislature countered the Texas redistricting with one of its own, undoing a neutral redistricting commission written into the state’s constitution. Voters ratified the referendum in a vote in November, changing results based on the 2024 vote from a 43-9 Democratic margin to 48-4, with 21 Democratic districts within a 10-point margin.

Missouri

Redistricting goal: +1 seat for Republicans

Missouri’s Republican-dominated legislature redrew its congressional map in late September to turn a safe Democratic district near Kansas City into one that leans Republican. The redistricting changes results based on the 2024 vote from a 6-2 Republican margin to 7-1, with no Republican district within 10 points. The change faces federal lawsuits.

Redistricting opponents announced they had gathered enough signatures to force a referendum, which historically would have blocked implementation of the redistricting law until it was voted upon. However, a state judge ruled the law would remain in effect until the signatures had been validated. Missouri’s attorney general Catherine Hanaway has argued voters do not have the power to block redistricting with a referendum.

North Carolina

Redistricting goal: +1 seat for Republicans

North Carolina’s Republican-dominated legislature redrew its congressional map on 22 October, adding Republican voters to a closely divided district along the coast traditionally held by a Black Democrat. North Carolina’s Democratic governor has no veto over redistricting legislation. The redistricting changes results based on the 2024 vote from a 10-4 Republican margin to 11-3, with no Republican district within 10 points.

Virginia

Redistricting goal: +4 seats for Democrats

Virginia voters narrowly adopted a constitutional amendment on 22 April, allowing legislators to redistrict the state. Virginia’s redistricting change was initially proposed to redraw three districts for Democratic advantage; ultimately state legislators redrew four districts, which changes Virginia’s Democratic advantage from 6-5 to 10-1. The process faces legal opposition from Republicans.

Ohio

Redistricting goal: +2 seats for Republicans

A last-minute negotiation surprise by Ohio’s redistricting commission resulted in a compromise congressional map that’s more favorable to Democrats than anticipated. Ohio sends 10 Republicans and five Democrats to Congress, one of whom – Marcy Kaptur – is in a seat Trump won by seven points. That district will become more Republican, as will one other seat held by a Democrat, while another Democratic seat will become less competitive for a Republican. Three of the five Democratic seats will be considered politically competitive in 2026. The competitive nature of the redrawn districts makes predicting the actual gain from this redistricting more challenging than it is in other states.

Utah

Redistricting goal: +1 seat forDemocrats

A federal judge has thrown out a congressional map drawn by Utah’s Republican-controlled legislature and imposed her own, creating a solidly Democratic district around Salt Lake City. Judge Dianna Gibson ruled the Republican map “unduly favors Republicans and disfavors Democrats” and failed to comply with a 2018 voter-approved measure against partisan gerrymandering.

The state currently sends four Republicans to Congress. Republicans had gambled on creating two marginally competitive districts instead of one safe Democratic seat, but Gibson rejected this approach and adopted a map drawn by voting rights groups.

Florida

Redistricting goal: +4 seats for Republicans

Governor Ron DeSantis has called for a special session to redraw the state’s congressional maps, which began on 28 April. The prospect faces two practical hurdles, however. The popular fair districts amendments to the state constitution passed by referendum in 2010 explicitly ban partisan and racial gerrymandering. And special election results this year suggest that Florida Republicans may be more concerned about shoring up incumbents in close districts than capturing new seats, according to Dave Wasserman at the Cook Political Report. Florida’s 2022 maps give Republicans a 20-8 advantage in a state Trump won 56-43 in 2024. DeSantis shared a new congressional district map on Monday which gives Republicans an expected advantage in 24 seats, a gain of four. But that map may be overly ambitious for Republicans. An analysis by Alex Alvarado for the Civic Data and Research Institute suggests “aggressive redistricting strategies aimed at maximizing Republican seat count may paradoxically increase Republican vulnerability to adverse electoral conditions”.

Unsuccessful attempts

Political leaders in these states considered redistricting efforts in 2025 or 2026, but either legal or political barriers kept them from succeeding.

Alabama

Unsuccessful goal: +1 seat for Republicans

Alabama’s current map has a Republican margin of 5-2, the result of a previous US supreme court case requiring a second majority-Black district. But Republican lawmakers in Alabama had hoped a ruling in the Louisiana v Callais case earlier this term would have allowed them to redraw their maps in 2025 or early 2026, reverting to previous districts with a 6-1 Republican majority.After the decision landed in late April, Alabama is expected to redraw its map for a 6-1 advantage in the future but will have to use its current 5-2 map for the 2026 election.

Illinois

Unsuccessful goal: +1 seat for Democrats

The Democratic-dominated Illinois legislature is under pressure from congressional Democrats to open up redistricting in a state that is already heavily gerrymandered to favor Democrats, who hold 14 of the 17 congressional districts. Indiana’s failed effort to redistrict deflated legislative interest in redistricting in Illinois. State legislators have expressed concern that gaining another seat would require diluting Black voting power for current districts, stretching Chicago-area districts deep into Republican, white-majority regions.

Indiana

Unsuccessful goal: +2 seats for Republicans

Indiana’s Republican governor, Mike Braun, announced a special session to consider redrawing congressional districts in the state in December. Indiana currently sends seven Republicans and two Democrats to Congress. Though a majority supported redistricting in the Indiana state house, the bill failed on 11 December, with 21 of the state senate’s 40 Republicans and all 10 Democrats in opposition.

Kansas

Unsuccessful goal: +1 seat for Republicans

Kansas requires a two-thirds majority in each legislative chamber to agree to a special session, which would be required to redraw its congressional maps. Republicans have a narrow supermajority in both chambers, and the senate announced it had reached the threshold, but the state’s house speaker announced in January that his chamber was 20 votes short of overriding an expected veto by Laura Kelly, the Democratic governor. A redistricting would take Kansas’s 3-1 Republican margin to 4-0.

Louisiana

Likely unsuccessful goal: +1 seat for Republicans

Louisiana’s current map has a Republican advantage of 4-2. Lawmakers convened a special session late last year to push elections back one month in anticipation of a supreme court ruling in Louisiana v Callais. The absence of that ruling until late April has probably forced Republican lawmakers to settle for using the 4-2 map for its six congressional districts, with primaries scheduled on 16 May. Lawmakers are still expected to redraw their maps, but it’s unclear if they will be able to do it in time for the November midterms.

Maryland

Unsuccessful goal: +1 seat for Democrats

A bill to redistrict Maryland died in a state senate committee in April as the legislative session ended without taking it up for a vote. The state senate president, Bill Ferguson, and governor, Wes Moore,, both Democrats, have been at loggerheads, with Ferguson questioning its political morality and legal feasibility. A state supreme court ruling in 2022 prohibited a previous attempt to gerrymander the state’s sole Republican representative out of his district. Ferguson has said he fears a legal challenge would result in court-drawn maps that would imperil existing Democratic-dominant districts.

Nebraska

Unsuccessful goal: No change

Nebraska’s three congressional representatives are all Republicans. However, the second congressional district around Omaha has grown more competitive over the years. Kamala Harris won this district in 2024 by four points. Legislators had considered a special session for redistricting to shore up this district for Republicans, but would have faced a filibuster in the state’s unicameral legislature and would have needed total support from elected Republicans to succeed.

New York

Unsuccessful goal: +1 seat for Democrats

The US supreme court ended a long-shot lawsuit in March, ruling that New York will use its existing congressional map for the 2026 elections. The decision halted a lower court order to redraw the 11th congressional district. A group of New Yorkers filed the lawsuit against the state’s board of elections last year, alleging that its congressional map unconstitutionally dilutes the voting power of Black and Latino residents of Staten Island. The suit was an effort to get around an amendment to the state constitution creating a redistricting commission that eliminates partisan gerrymandering. New York currently sends 19 Democrats and seven Republicans to Congress.

Wisconsin

Unsuccessful goal: +2 seats for Democrats

Mid-decade redistricting in Wisconsin looks increasingly unlikely after a judicial panel last month rejected a challenge to Wisconsin’s congressional map and the argument that it is a partisan gerrymander that violates state law to the detriment of Democratic voters. Appeals are unlikely to be heard with enough time to redraw Wisconsin’s districts.

The Wisconsin supreme court – dominated by conservatives in 2022 – adopted a map created by the then-Republican legislature which gives Republicans a 6-2 margin in the state’s congressional delegation. Two of the six Republicans are in seats decided by less than five-percentage-point margins. The state’s partisan voting balance is very close; Donald Trump won Wisconsin by about one percentage point. But the suit was a relative long shot to be decided in time for the legislature to act for the 2026 elections.