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5 hours ago
Voters in several states are heading to the polls on Tuesday for elections that will provide a crucial window into nationwide support for Donald Trump’s Republican allies, and potentially signal new momentum for the beleaguered Democratic party.
The off-year elections could see Democratic insurgent Zohran Mamdanibecome the next mayor of New York City, while voters in deep-blue California could tear up their congressional maps in favor of a Democratic gerrymander meant to counter gains the GOP is expected to make elsewhere. And Virginia and New Jersey will hold high-stakes gubernatorial and legislative elections that may serve as a proxy for voters’ views on the president.
Here’s more about what to expect on 4 November:
Why is Mamdani such a big deal?
New York City has probably the most high-profile mayor in the country, and in June, Mamdani, a 34-year-old state assemblyman and democratic socialist, won the Democratic primary in an upset over former governor Andrew Cuomo. Though Cuomo remains in the race as an independent, polls show Mamdani with a formidable lead, and if he wins, his brand of left-wing politics will be given a prominent platform.
Why might California redraw its congressional maps?
Texas redrew their maps to favor Republicans at Trump’s urging, one of several states that the president has pushed to use partisan gerrymanders to help the GOP hold seats in the House of Representatives in next year’s midterm elections. For various reasons, only a handful of Democratic-led states can redraw their maps to offset the expected Republican gains, with California offering the best opportunity. Because the state has an independent redistricting commission, voters will be asked to approve proposition 50, which would enact a new map that could allow Democrats to pick up five more House seats. Backed by governor Gavin Newsom, polls have shown the proposition with a strong lead.
Which states are getting new governors?
New Jersey and Virginia. In the former, two-term Democrat Phil Murphy cannot run for re-election, and polls have shown a tight race to replace him between Republican former state lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic congresswoman Mikie Sherrill. In Virginia, a politically competitive state, Republican governor Glenn Youngkin has served the single term allowed under the state constitution, and polls indicate Democratic former congresswoman Abigail Spanberger in the lead to replace him over Republican lieutenant governor Winsome Earle-Sears.
What about state legislatures?
Though both Virginia and New Jersey are considered blue states at the presidential level, there are good reasons to pay attention to the states’ legislative elections. New Jersey’s Democratic-controlled General Assembly is up for grabs, a year after Trump netted more votes than expected in the state, even if he did not win it outright. A strong GOP performance in the chamber could be indicative that the party is indeed on the upswing, even when Trump is not on the ballot. In Virginia, Democrats will be looking to expand their slim hold on the House of Delegates, which they control with 51 seats to the Republicans’s 48.
Which race has stirred up the most heated debate?
It has to be Mamdani’s ascendance in New York City. While his brand of left-wing politics is exciting to many, it clearly makes some leading Democrats uncomfortable. Chuck Schumer, the New Yorker who leads Democrats in the US Senate, still has not yet endorsed him, though Hakeem Jeffries, a fellow New Yorker who is the top House Democrat, has. Republicans have meanwhile seized on Mamdani’s popularity to argue, not quite convincingly, that the party has been taken over by radicals, with speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, routinely calling him a “Marxist”. Expect to hear plenty more of that from the right, if Mamdani wins. It’s also worth keeping an eye on the Virginia attorney general’s race. Democrat Jay Jones is hoping to unseat Republican incumbent Jason Miyares, but his momentum has been sapped by the publication of a text exchange in which Jones muses about a former state lawmaker getting “two bullets to the head”.
Any under-the-radar races we should have our eyes on?
Pennsylvania’s judicial retention elections are worthy of attention. Voters in the swing state must decide whether to keep three of the five Democratic justices on the state supreme court. Republicans, who have two justices on the court, hope voters deny them retention, which could tip the scales in their favor when the court next weighs voting and abortion rights in the state, as it is expected to in the future. And in Minneapolis, voters are weighing whether to re-elect Democratic incumbent Jacob Frey as mayor, or replace him with democratic socialist challenger Omar Fateh, who some have dubbed the “Mamdani of Minneapolis”.
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