Virginia governor's race a test of Trump's grip on competitive state

By Bo Erickson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Virginia's governor election this year is a popularity test for Republican President Donald Trump and his policies, presenting an opportunity for Democrats to claw back some power after the party's recent election rout.

The southern state holds a primary on Tuesday that will determine who faces off in the November 4 general election. The process is largely a formality as Democrats and Republicans each have only one candidate, likely meaning either Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, the first Black Republican elected statewide, or Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former three-term U.S. Representative, will become the state's first woman governor.

The state's off-year election is often seen as a referendum on the presidency. Only once since 1977 has Virginia picked a governor from the same party as the sitting president.

Four years ago, Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin ran against former President Joe Biden's pandemic-era policies and won. Virginia law does not allow governors to serve consecutive terms.

The three major non-partisan U.S. election ratings groups and recent public opinion polls give Spanberger a slight edge in the general election.

"The race is likely to be competitive. It’s not going to be a blowout one way or another,” said Jennifer Victor, a political science professor at George Mason University.

Trump's government overhaul, previously led by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, hit parts of Virginia's more than 144,000 federal civilian workforce, from the northern suburbs outside Washington, D.C., to the southern part of the state that is home to a large military presence.

"There is going to be this question of federal workers just because of how much it was taken as a direct assault on Virginia and what Virginia contributes to the nation," said Claire McKinney, a government professor at the College of William & Mary.

Norfolk's Port of Virginia, the nation's ninth-largest water port based on tonnage, is also bracing for the potential full implementation of Trump's sweeping tariff threats.

"If people start feeling their prices go up, and start feeling businesses start laying people off, which I think is likely if these tariffs have the impact that I expect, that would be terrible for Sears," said Derrick Max, a Republican who leads the free-market Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy in Virginia.

"But if Trump is using this as a bargaining chip and the tariffs never really go into effect and we end up getting some trade deals out of it, it's a bonus for Sears."

POLITICALLY DIVERSE ELECTORATE

Spanberger was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections during Trump's first term. One of five women with national security backgrounds who helped Democrats capture a House majority, the former CIA officer is using similar tactics to rail against the administration's latest policies and congressional Republicans' proposed tax and budget legislation.

Virginia's politically diverse electorate requires Spanberger to break into more rural areas that have been a challenge for the national Democratic Party, according to Brandy Faulkner, a politics professor at Virginia Tech.

"She's going to have to get out of that little bubble and really see what ordinary people in the non-metro areas are concerned about and why they've been voting as they have been," Faulkner said.

Spanberger said in a statement that if elected she would focus on lowering costs, strengthening the state economy and schools, and protecting freedoms.

"Virginians deserve leaders who will always put their jobs, schools, and communities first," Spanberger said.

Earle-Sears, who served in the U.S. Marine Corps, is hoping her statewide record coupled with Trump's popularity in parts of the state far from the Washington suburbs can turn out the conservative base.

"I will never stop fighting to make life more affordable, our schools stronger, and our communities safer. We’ve delivered important progress over the past four years, and we still have so much more to do," Earle-Sears said in a statement.

In New Jersey, the only other U.S. state holding a governor's race this year, Democratic U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill - a former Navy pilot and federal prosecutor who was also first elected in the 2018 midterms - will face Trump-backed Republican former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli.

(Reporting by Bo Erickson; Editing by Scott Malone and Nia Williams)