Unrest in the Middle East threatens to send some prices higher

MATT OTT

Fri, Jun 13, 2025, 2:05 PM 5 min read

Israel's attack on Iran Friday has catapulted their long-running conflict into what could become a wider, more dangerous regional war and potentially drive prices higher for both businesses and households.

Oil and gold surged and the dollar rose as markets retreated, signaling a flight to investments perceived as more safe.

After years of sky-high inflation in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans have become increasingly leery about the economy this year due to President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, though the impact so far has been muted.

The latest escalation in the Middle East has the potential to cause widespread price increases that could set consumers back again.

Here's a look at some of the sectors that could face an outsized impact from the escalation in the Middle East, and what that might mean for consumers.

Energy

Oil prices surged Friday to their biggest gain since the onset of Russia's war on Ukraine began more than three years ago. If or when Israel's attack on Iran could impact gas prices, which have been in decline for nearly a year, isn't entirely clear.

Iran is one of the world’s major producers of oil, though sanctions by Western countries have limited its sales. If a wider war erupts, it could significantly slow or stop the flow of Iran’s oil to its customers. Energy prices have been held in check this year because production has remained relatively high, and demand for it low. A widening conflict could tilt that balance.

“The loss of this export supply would wipe out the surplus that was expected in the fourth quarter of this year,” analysts for ING wrote in a note to clients.

In the past, conflicts in the Middle East have sent energy price soaring for extended periods but in recent years, because of the huge supply of oil, those spikes have been more fleeting.

Earlier this month, the countries in the OPEC+ alliance decided to increase production again, which often pushes crude prices down. They hit a four-year low in early May. That usually means cheaper gas, of which there is currently a surplus.

According to the auto club organization AAA, the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. on Friday was $3.13 per gallon, down from $3.46 a year ago.

Shipping

Shipping costs were already on the rise for a number of reasons. Cargo is being rerouted around the Red Sea where the U.S. began conducting air strikes on Yemen’s Houthis, the Iran-backed rebels who were attacking ships on what is a vital global trade route. And this year, companies have scrambled to import as many goods as possible before Trump’s tariffs kicked in, pushing demand, and prices to ship, higher.