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Thomas Massie’s Primary Is The Biggest Test Yet Of Trump’s Hold On Republicans

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President Donald Trump’s quest to oust Rep. Thomas Massie from his U.S. House seat in Northern Kentucky has turned into the most expensive House primary in American history and a signature test of the unpopular second-term president’s grip on his party.

Campaigns and outside groups backing Massie and his Trump-endorsed challenger, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, have spent nearly $33 million on television ads ahead of Tuesday’s primary. Massie drew Trump’s ire by going against the GOP on a series of high-profile votes, including on spending bills, on extending tax cuts and on Trump’s military adventurism. He was also a leading advocate for releasing the government’s files on Jeffrey Epstein, the *** predator who was once Trump’s friend.

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Massie, a stubborn libertarian known for his willingness to stand alone in voting against major legislation, had survived previous primary challenges and previous spats with the president. But Trump and his allies launched their campaign against him last June, before they’d even recruited a candidate, intending to make an example out of members who break with the president.

“MAGA should drop this pathetic LOSER, Tom Massie, like the plague,” Trump wrote on his website that month. “The good news is that we will have a wonderful American Patriot running against him in the Republican Primary, and I’ll be out in Kentucky campaigning really hard.”

And while Trump did not visit the state in the final stretch of the election ― he sent U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on Monday ― the president has continuously posted online against Massie, accusing him on Sunday of voting against Republicans and “making life very easy for the Radical Left.”

Massie’s pitch to voters is not that he’s against Trump, but that he actually stands for the things that Trump is supposed to stand for.

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“The 10% of the time that I’m not voting with him, I’m not disparaging him, I’m not calling him names, I’m voting for things that he campaigned on,” Massie told HuffPost. “I increasingly have to vote against my own party because they’ve betrayed the constituents.”

Even more so than his first term, however, Trump’s second term has shown there’s no fixed principle underlying Trump’s political agenda. Trump campaigned on lowering prices in 2024, and as president has derided affordability concerns as a hoax. He campaigned on avoiding wars, then bombed eight countries and launched a fresh war in the Middle East.

Trump has purged plenty of Republicans from the party, mostly obvious targets, like the senators and House members who voted to impeach or convict Trump during his first term. If Kentucky’s Republican voters throw out Massie in favor of Gallrein, it will suggest there’s still no room in the party for even a small amount of dissent, even as Trump becomes a lame duck with awful poll numbers and no obvious successor.

To replace Massie, Trump recruited Gallrein, praising his “central casting” looks and background while also publicly referring to him as an interchangeable “warm body.” On Sunday, he called him “A WINNER WHO WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN.”

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Last month, polls showed Massie leading the race, but it appears his advantage has eroded as the campaign has intensified. A survey from Quantus Insights, a GOP firm, last week showed Gallrein leading 48% to 43% as undecided voters broke to the challenger.

“Massie’s support reflects the durability of a congressman who has built his reputation on fiscal conservatism, skepticism of leadership, and a willingness to stand apart from his party when he believes the issue demands it,” Quantus said in an analysis of its survey data. “Gallrein’s support reflects the power of Trump’s endorsement, the weight of national conservative attention, and the ability of a challenger to consolidate voters who believe the district needs a different representative.”

Tuesday’s election follows victories for Trump-backed candidates in state legislature elections in Indiana, where Republicans defied the president’s push to redraw their maps, and in Louisiana, where on Saturday Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who voted to convict Trump in 2021, did not advance to a runoff.