The states where higher gas prices could shape the midterms

President Donald Trump stood in front of Congress less than a month ago and boasted about low gas prices. Now he’s presiding over a 30 percent price spike that’s put his party on the defensive.

Gasoline prices are up in every state since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the end of February, according to AAA’s average fuel prices. Those with particularly competitive races like Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan have seen price jumps of at least $1 per gallon.

After a suite of state and local elections last year steered the bulk of campaign rhetoric toward affordability for both parties, the president’s decisions risk muddling GOP messaging for weeks, if not months. And with primaries underway, the rise in prices may drive a wedge between Trump and downballot Republicans.

“[Republican candidates] have to acknowledge what's going on, and they have to make sure that they're not seen as out of touch with voters on this,” said Texas-based GOP consultant Brendan Steinhauser, whose clients have included Sen. John Cornyn and Rep. Dan Crenshaw. “Some of them are moving with some trepidation about not talking about the war, and they don't want to be seen as necessarily opposing the president or being critical of him. So I think a lot of the conversations have been more quiet.”

The price of regular-grade gasoline averaged $3.91 across the U.S. on Friday, nearly $1 higher than when Trump celebrated low gas prices in his State of the Union speech on Feb. 24, and it’s unclear when they might settle as the conflict levels energy infrastructure in the region. Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for the oil industry, has been traded at above $100 a barrel for the past week, up from around $71 per barrel when Trump gave his State of the Union.

The White House is insisting the surge in fuel costs is a temporary issue that the president’s larger energy agenda will make up for.

“President Trump has been clear that these are short-term disruptions and that Americans will see oil and gas prices drop rapidly again once the necessary objectives of Operation Epic Fury have been achieved and the regime’s capabilities are neutralized,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement. “President Trump’s energy dominance agenda saved American families hundreds of dollars at the pump last year, and he will continue to double down on these successful efforts to lower prices in the weeks and months ahead.”

Trump, she said, is “committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress.”

Still, while Republicans have broadly expressed support for the Trump administration’s military action, most GOP incumbents in competitive races have not made any public statements on gas prices since the strikes began.

Some embattled lawmakers have proposed policy changes that would address gas costs. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa) is pushing a bill that would allow year-round sales of E15 gas, which mixes gasoline with higher levels of ethanol to reduce costs. And Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) introduced legislation to boost domestic energy production and “bring down energy costs” — though he has attributed the higher costs to New York’s climate policy.

The setback for Republicans’ affordability agenda has emboldened Democratic lawmakers.

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) told MSNOW that high diesel prices hurt American farmers in particular. Diesel, which is critical for transportation and shipping goods, averaged $5.16 a gallon on Friday, up from $3.75 before the war.

Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas), whose district is more competitive following Texas’ redistricting, took the high gas prices as an opportunity to campaign on “making life more affordable.”

"Instead of this Administration working to lower prices for our families, they initiated a war with Iran that has already cost American lives and increased prices at the pump,” Gonzalez posted on X.

Especially in large states such as Texas, the effects of gas prices on voters isn’t even: The cost of regular gas varied from about $3.56 around Gonzalez’s south Texas district to $4 in the western counties of the state and nearly down to $3 in parts of the panhandle, according to AAA.

The Energy Information Administration, an independent statistical agency of the Department of Energy, increased its price forecast for crude oil for the rest of the year following the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. The EIA estimated gas will cost an average of $3.34 this year — which nearly every state has already surpassed. The EIA’s forecast is up 15 percent from its estimate of $2.91 in February, prior to the war.

State lawmakers in both parties have proposed gas tax holidays in response to rising costs. Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis on Thursday rejected a statewide gas tax pause, despite previously enacting one in 2022, when prices rose after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

As part of a series of actions to bring down energy prices, Trump announced on Wednesday a temporary pause of the Jones Act, giving foreign cargo ships access to U.S. ports in an effort to boost fuel supplies.

Vice President JD Vance told reporters at an event in Michigan on Wednesday the Trump administration was fighting to bring down gasoline and diesel prices. He echoed the White House view that the spikes would be temporary.

“We promise that when this conflict draws to a close, when this operation draws to a close, we're going to see those energy prices come back down to reality,” Vance said. “Because that's what the president promised to do.”