The redistricting fight shifts to the courtroom

The fight over this year’s House map is barreling through the nation’s courtrooms.

High-stakes legal cases that could determine the majority loom in nearly a dozen states, with just months to go until the November election. The wave of court cases follows a 2025 that was marked by fiercely political showdowns, with high-profile walkouts, rare Republican defections President Donald Trump and a hugely expensive ballot initiative in California.

And in addition to the state-by-state fights, one case before the Supreme Court — Louisiana v. Callais — has the ability to blow up the entire map.

“There was a lot of political action in ’25, and that's turning to the courthouse now, this year,” said Justin Levitt, a former adviser to President Joe Biden on democracy and voting rights and a law professor at Loyola Marymount University. “It's not just the Supreme Court. These are fights about individual state practices all over the place.”

In Missouri, for example, there are multiple lawsuits — and a ballot measure effort — to try and halt the GOP-led redraw there. In Florida, Democrats are already trying to get ahead of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ planned April redraw with a lawsuit that argues he lacks the authority to call for it. Cases in Utah, New York and Wisconsin that could shift seats are still playing out even as voters gear up for primaries.

In Maryland, the National Republican Congressional Committee has retained a lawyer to handle any potential redistricting challenges there, according to two people familiar with the hiring granted anonymity to discuss it. In Virginia, the state Supreme Court is expected to decide whether the Democratic remapping effort — which still needs to go before voters — is legal, with state Democratic officials vowing to challenge decisions from lower state courts that freeze the gerrymandering push.

Waiting for the court process to play out means organizations dedicated to redistricting are navigating both political and legal challenges simultaneously — and that voters and election officials have no real idea what district lines they may be asked to use, in some cases, in a manner of weeks.

“That's something we're used to at this point,” said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. “Running full steam on the political side or campaign side while waiting for court rulings or engaging court processes has been an ever-present reality for us.”

That isn’t to say there weren't any major court decisions in 2025, nor that there will be no political fighting this year. Already, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have been ramping up pressure on state Senate Leader Bill Ferguson, a fellow Democrat who opposes the effort. Florida lawmakers have squabbled over what timing is best to take up the issue, and Virginia may see an expensive ballot measure fight play out over its map.

By far the biggest legal fight is Louisiana v. Callais, the Supreme Court case which centers around Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. That case could upend the House map by eliminating a legal interpretation of Section 2 — which broadly outlaws discrimination based on race in elections — that has resulted in states drawing districts where minority voters make up at least half the population.

The end of Section 2 would give red states, especially in the South, the ability to draw out more than a dozen Democratic-held seats, an analysis from liberal groups last year found.

While many legal scholars, including Levitt, expect the decision to come at the end of the term in June — which could prevent any redraws from taking place before the midterms — the Supreme Court could hand down its ruling whenever it wants, and some states are prepared to quickly redraw.

A June decision would likely “radically reshape, not just congressional, but local and state maps for ’27 and ’28,” Levitt said.

“A really really big decision upends every map across the country,” he said, cautioning that he doesn’t expect a ruling to go there. “I think it's entirely possible that the court here says, ‘you know what, never mind,’ it looks over the edge of the cliff and says, ‘oh, that's really scary.’”

The court’s next scheduled opinion days are Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.

There are several other major decisions pending in other courts. In Virginia, Republicans have won victories in two cases in front of the same Tazewell County judge, although many in the state expect the state Supreme Court to have the final word on if the voter referendum on April 21 will go ahead.

In Utah, a federal panel ruled on Monday that it would not block the new court-ordered map, which gave one blue-leaning seat to Democrats last year. Republicans may appeal, but the decision — and a recent state Supreme Court ruling rejecting another GOP appeal — could lock the lines in place for 2026. And in New York, two state courts have sided with Democrats hoping to draw one more blue-leaning seat in a surprise win, but Republicans have vowed to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

It’s not uncommon for redistricting to end up before judges, but the unusual mid-cycle battle has added fuel to a fire that was already burning.

“Redistricting cycles have phases. Map drawing, then litigation, then sometimes more mapdrawing. This mid-decade cycle is no different,” said Adam Kincaid, the president of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, who redrew the Texas map last year that was ultimately upheld by the Supreme Court. “There will be several legal fights in the months ahead.”

But with the map still uncertain just months away from November — and as primary season begins — the lengthy legal process complicates how election workers can prepare ballots, and can lead to confusion for voters.

“These things take a real toll on election officials and voters,” David Becker, founder of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, said of mid-decade redistricting. “These things make it very difficult for election officials to manage the workload with less resources than they've ever had.”

A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.