Senate hopeful Haley Stevens knows how to win in Michigan. Democrats must decide if that's enough

SOUTH HAVEN, Mich. (AP) — U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens is spending the closing weeks of Michigan's Democratic Senate primary making a simple case: she's the candidate who wins.

Stevens flipped a Republican-held House seat in suburban Detroit in 2018 and hasn't lost since, including surviving a bruising primary against a fellow Democratic incumbent after redistricting in 2022. She says it's what sets her apart from her opponent in the Aug. 4 primary, progressive Abdul El-Sayed.

"It is not a hypothetical that I beat Republicans," Stevens told The Associated Press after a campaign stop in West Michigan this week. "I win tough races. I have had Republicans throw everything at me and still managed to win."

Holding Michigan's Senate seat is essential to any Democratic path back to the Senate majority this fall. That imperative only grew this week after Democrats' nominee in Maine, Graham Platner, said he planned to drop out after he was accused of sexual assault, threatening another seat the party had hoped to keep competitive. While no Republican has won a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan since 1994, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers came within 20,000 votes of doing so in 2024.

That calculation has led Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and influential Michigan Democrats, including former Sen. Debbie Stabenow, to rally behind Stevens, arguing she gives Democrats their strongest chance in November against Rogers, who is running again.

But if electability is the party establishment's top priority, it's an open question whether Democratic primary voters agree.

"Democratic leadership should think more in terms of what we want to accomplish, and less about, 'We've got to make it appeal to everybody,'" said Dave Burdick, 71, of Douglas, Michigan. He's backing El-Sayed, who has surged by arguing that Democrats don't have to run to the middle to win.

El-Sayed has built his campaign around bold policy proposals, rejecting corporate PAC money and casting himself as an alternative to the status quo of the Democratic Party.

"People don't want a moderate. They want somebody who's going to come in and effect change," Burdick added.

Stevens makes the case for retail politics

On a summer afternoon in South Haven, a community along Lake Michigan, Stevens walks into a pet supply store with the ease of a seasoned campaigner. Within minutes, she's chatting with the owner about the area, greeting reporters by first name and striking up conversations with customers. She slips easily between small talk and campaign mode, asking about customers' lives before mentioning legislation she's championed and asking for their vote.

"I thought she was great fun," said owner Roxanne Leder. "She was energetic and had a positive outlook."

It's the kind of campaigning Stevens' allies say has defined her political career. They acknowledge she lacks the viral progressive moments that have fueled El-Sayed's rise, but say she's at her best in small rooms, union halls and local businesses — which they say is where elections are won.

Stevens has leaned into that contrast herself.

"Unlike my opponent, I'm not running at the first mic or camera I see," Stevens said during a debate Tuesday. "We do not need a celebrity senator. We need a workhorse."

It's also a style familiar to Michigan Democrats. From former Gov. Jennifer Granholm to current-Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, successful statewide candidates have often paired an upbeat, personable campaign style with a pragmatic message centered on economic issues.

But unlike Granholm or Whitmer, Stevens has yet to generate the kind of broad grassroots enthusiasm that defined their statewide campaigns. El-Sayed, meanwhile, has packed rallies with progressive supporters and high-profile endorsers.

Stevens has leaned more heavily on tens of millions of dollars in outside spending, which could become one of Stevens' biggest liabilities in the primary. Outside groups have spent more than $30 million to boost her candidacy, dwarfing the spending behind El-Sayed. The largest spender, United Democracy Project, the super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, has spent more than $13 million on Stevens' behalf and reserved another $7 million before the primary.

For Burdick, the 71-year-old El-Sayed supporter, that spending is disqualifying. He said he would not vote for Stevens in the general election because of her support from AIPAC.

Leder, by contrast, said she expects to vote for Stevens in August because she's far more familiar with the congresswoman than with El-Sayed. She said she still plans to do more research before making a final decision.

"I'm just a Democrat," said Leder. "Please, please no Mike Rogers."

Michigan has a populist streak

El-Sayed is running on Medicare for All, campaign finance reform, abolishing the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency and ending all U.S. weapons sales to Israel. He's also a Muslim who has never held elected office.

To many Democratic leaders in Washington, that makes him a risky nominee in a battleground state often viewed as moderate and centered on manufacturing.

But Michigan has repeatedly rewarded candidates who cast themselves as outsiders challenging the political establishment. In 2016, Sen. Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton in the state's Democratic presidential primary by running against party leaders. Donald Trump later built his own anti-establishment coalition, carrying Michigan in 2016 and again in 2024.

Burdick, a self-described "old white guy living in rural Michigan" who is a democratic socialist, said Trump and Sanders resonated with voters because they were upset.

"Well, you know what? They're still mad," he said. "They portray people like Abdul as unrealistic, but I think it's unrealistic to think that we can continue the way that we're heading."

A two-person race changes the calculus

On Sunday, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow suspended her campaign. It prompted establishment Democrats to jump off the sidelines and back Stevens, including Democratic group EMILY's List and Attorney General Dana Nessel.

"Haley is wicked smart, has won multiple highly competitive races, and she connects with people on a level so sincere and genuine that everyone who meets her feels truly seen and heard," Nessel said in a statement.

El-Sayed has also built support among labor groups that have played an influential role in Democratic politics, including an endorsement from the United Auto Workers.

Fems for Dems, an influential Democratic grassroots group in the state, is not endorsing in the primary. But its founder, Lori Goldman, told AP in an interview that she planned to vote for El-Sayed.

"I personally am not going to have business as usual when I go to the ballot box. I want to vote for people, candidates that are going to go there and fight on our behalf," she said.

Goldman, who founded the group 10 years ago in the politically important Oakland County, acknowledges the changing dynamics of Democratic primaries.

"Who would the natural choice be 10 years ago? Haley Stevens, right? Because we just followed the party line," she said.

"People are breaking away from the party line. People want change."