Ron DeSantis and Florida Republicans prepare for next round of 2026 redistricting fight

President Donald Trump’s yearlong effort to redraw congressional districts ahead of the 2026 midterms has not gone as planned. But Republicans have one last mid-decade redistricting battleground on the table: Florida.

At the urging of Gov. Ron DeSantis, Florida state lawmakers will gather in Tallahassee next week for a special legislative session to consider redrawing the state’s 28 congressional districts — a move that could lead to between two and five new GOP-leaning seats. But it has drawn opposition from many in his own party because of concerns it could dilute existing Republican-held seats to the point where the party could lose incumbents in the fall.

That reflects a gloomy political environment for Republicans at the moment. So far, even the Trump-led mid-decade redistricting cycle has disappointed the White House.

After the president pushed GOP-leaning Texas to redraw congressional lines last year, a handful of Democratic-led states also redrew their maps. The back-and-forth makes it likely that neither party nets more than a handful of seats through redistricting, no matter what happens in Florida.

National Democrats have already highlighted Florida as Trump’s last stand on redistricting this year. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters earlier this week that his party will be targeting Florida seats during the midterms, something that has not been the case in recent election cycles.

“Our message to Florida Republicans is, ‘F around and find out,’” Jeffries said.

DeSantis shot back, needling Democrats over their poor brand in Florida.

“‘We’re going to go after Florida.’ Please, be my guest,” DeSantis said of Jeffries earlier this week. “I will pay for you to come down to Florida and campaign. I’ll put you up in the Florida governor’s mansion. We’ll take you fishing.”

Readying for redistricting battle

Florida’s state constitution expressly prohibits the passage of any political map that shows “intent” of favoring one party over the other.

That makes the legal hurdles in Florida — which would be the eighth state to redraw a congressional map ahead of the midterms — much different than in other states, where lawmakers involved in redistricting openly talked about picking up more House seats for their party. In Florida, though, that sort of talk could become part of legal challenges.

Democrats and opponents of the redistricting effort will almost certainly file additional legal challenges when the maps are passed, under the idea they were part of a politically driven attempt to pad Republicans’ slim House majority.

Republicans, however, remain unfazed by the legal threats, arguing that the current maps include vestiges of a Democratic-drawn map approved by the courts in 2012. They are trying, they say, to right a redistricting wrong rather than make any sort of overt political move.

“The current maps have vestiges of the DCCC map imposed by the courts a decade ago,” said Florida GOP Chairman Evan Power. “Recent court rulings say we don’t have to draw districts that way anymore.”

“Now, we can draw fair and compact districts to empower voters to choose the representation they want,” he added.

Florida’s current congressional maps were also largely drawn by DeSantis and approved by GOP lawmakers just a few years ago. Republicans won a 20-8 advantage in the Florida delegation under those lines.

DeSantis’ redistricting push has already drawn legal challenges from a group of state voters led by well-known Democratic attorney Marc Elias, who filed a lawsuit claiming the governor had overstepped his authority when he called for a special session on redrawing lines.

“The Governor’s powers are defined by Florida’s Constitution — which does not confer unilateral authority to bind the Legislature into passing legislation,” the lawsuit says.

A group called No Partisan Maps has also said it will hold protests at Florida’s state Capitol on Tuesday to mark the start of the redistricting special session.

Intraparty conflict

DeSantis is facing significant pushback from fellow Republicans, most notably from members of the congressional delegation, who are concerned that redistricting could dilute the GOP vote in ways that could put some districts in play in the midterms, as Democrats have shown early momentum in special elections.

“Don’t do it. I’ve said it from the beginning,” Rep. Daniel Webster, R-Fla., told Punchbowl News earlier this month. “I’ve been around enough reapportionments to know it’s a slippery slope.”

Longtime Republican consultant Karl Rove on Friday also warned that Florida Republicans should not overreach.

“Right now, the Democrats are ahead. If Florida moves like it can, the Republicans will at least be even,” Rove told “Fox & Friends,” analyzing the national redistricting state of play to date. “But there’s a risk there, because what they’re going to do is they’re going to have to take Republican votes out of Republican districts and put them into Democrat districts, and that’s going to lower the numbers for some incumbent Republicans, and they may lose a seat or two.”

DeSantis also has problems with lawmakers in his own GOP-dominated Legislature, many of whom have been openly feuding with the governor since his failed 2024 presidential bid.

“There is no one that wants to do this here,” said a Republican state representative, who was granted anonymity to speak freely about their opposition to the Republican governor’s plans. “This is a DeSantis-driven ship. I don’t think there is any doubt about that. We will see how it goes.”

Five Republican state lawmakers interviewed by NBC News shared the sentiment, with most saying there is a general apathy among legislators about passing congressional maps that don’t directly impact them.

“If I had to guess, as long as the maps are not too egregious, I think we will vote to pass,” said another. “But don’t mistake that for anyone caring or really supporting the idea.”

Still, there is increased pressure on Florida Republicans to do something after Virginia voters approved a plan that could see Democrats pick up four House seats in the state.

“Florida has the right and the intention to do it,” House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told reporters this week. “And my view is that they should.”

NBC News reported earlier this month that the White House is watching the Florida process closely, but it has not engaged as aggressively as in other Republican-leaning states because of concerns over forthcoming legal challenges.

“It would be the worst thing they could do to seem like they are anywhere near this,” said a former Trump administration official.

As of Friday afternoon, DeSantis’ office has not yet released maps or given any indication of what a proposed map could look like.

Under normal circumstances, Florida’s redistricting process includes a series of public hearings as the maps come together.

Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried called the redistricting effort a “stunt” and a “direct attack on fair representation.” “This is yet another attempt by DeSantis to silence voters, and cheat the people of Florida out of a democracy that belongs to them,” she said.

Though no maps exist yet, the biggest concern from Republicans is about diluting the Republican vote in GOP-held districts in the Miami and Tampa areas. That could put at risk Republican Reps. Carlos Gimenez and Maria Salazar in South Florida and Laurel Lee and Anna Paulina Luna in the Tampa area.

“Let’s say they aggressively mess with Kathy Castor’s seat,” said a longtime Republican operative, speaking about the Tampa-area Democratic congresswoman. “What does that mean for Lee and Luna?”

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com