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Republicans might be helping Denise Powell, right, win a primary in Nebraska's swingy second district, but many Democrats don't see a difference in electability between her and John Cavanaugh, left. Associated Press
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On Thursday, a super PAC with a minimalist paper trail began airing about $200,000 worth of ads in the Omaha, Nebraska, media market. The ad campaign tied state Sen. John Cavanaugh, who is running for the Democratic nomination to represent the area in Congress, to President Donald Trump.
The 30-second ad’s argument is laughable: Cavanaugh had introduced legislation to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime in the state, and that the proposal mirrored Trump’s. The ad claims Cavanaugh backing those proposals means he actually endorsed the entirety of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” and “betrayed Nebraska Democrats.”
The group behind the ad, Lead Left PAC, will not have to disclose its donors until after the primary on May 12. But all signs indicate it’s a Republican effort to meddle in a Democratic primary, a tactic both parties have increasingly used in recent years: a leading Republican-aligned nonprofit, the American Action Network, ran similar ads last month, and metadata on the PAC’s website contains a link to WinRed, a GOP online fundraising platform.
Democrats in Washington and Nebraska, however, are baffled by the GOP’s apparent strategy in Nebraska’s 2nd District. GOP Rep. Don Bacon held onto the seat in 2024, even as Kamala Harris carried the district in the presidential race. Bacon’s decision to retire has turned it into a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats, who are looking to take control of the House in the 2026 midterms.
Cavanaugh is considered one of two leading contenders for the Democratic nomination in the district, alongside Denise Powell, a political consultant who founded a group that trains women to run for office. By attacking Cavanaugh, Republicans seem to indicate they would prefer that their nominee, Omaha Councilmember Brinker Harding, run against Powell.
This is confusing for two reasons: Republicans, generally speaking, would prefer to run against the most left-leaning candidate possible. Cavanaugh, who has the endorsement of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, is seen as the more liberal candidate ― he was even listed as a candidate who could help Republicans hold the House in a conservative publication.
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Second, his election to Congress could theoretically open a chance for Republicans to redraw the state’s congressional lines, granting them both an additional House seat and an extra electoral college vote.
“I don’t see how spending to elevate either of these candidates makes a lot of sense,” said one Nebraska Democrat, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the press. “If the goal is just to confuse people, though, it’s a great use of donor money.”
Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC closely linked with the American Action Network, did not respond to an email seeking comment.
Lead Left PAC also began airing ads in the Philadelphia market on Thursday, attempting to sway votes in Pennsylvania’s 7th District. But their goal there seems comparatively straightforward: The spot attacks two leading Democrats while boosting a third who has proven to be a much weaker fundraiser.
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If the GOP does see Powell as the weaker candidate, it’s possibly because of her roles with liberal nonprofits that Nebraska Attorney General Mike Hilgers, a Republican, alleges took illegal donations from Swiss billionaire Hansjörg Wyss. Wyss donated to major liberal nonprofits, which subsequently donated to local groups backing referendums on abortion rights and public school funding. Powell did consulting work for the local groups. It’s possible the GOP believes they can hammer Powell on the purported scandal.
That’s the theory Cavanaugh is endorsing, with his campaign arguing an “active investigation into foreign money being funneled into local elections” is why “Republicans are so desperate to defeat Cavanaugh and run against Powell instead.”
“Voters across the district have been inundated for weeks with ads from Powell’s Trump-backed allies who are trying to win this district for her: that tells you whose side she’s on,” Cavanaugh said in a statement. “I am standing up to the billionaires and special interests who know my vote won’t be for sale, and I’m the candidate Republicans know will flip this district blue.”
Powell, meanwhile, insists Republicans are simply trying to confuse voters ahead of Tuesday’s election.
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“Republicans are trying to create chaos in this primary because they know what’s at stake for Nebraska and for the country in the upcoming primary,” Powell senior adviser Meg Mandy said. “It’s clear that Denise is the strongest candidate to flip this seat — she’s a working mom who has fought tirelessly to stop abortion bans and protect public school funding and has built the broadest coalition and consistently led in fundraising and endorsements. Denise is the only candidate who can win in November without putting our Blue Dot at risk.”
Cavanaugh, the son of a former congressman, opened the primary with a big lead, according to the limited public polling. But Powell has led in fundraising, and two outside groups, including one tied to the moderate New Democrat Coalition and another tied to Democratic Majority For Israel, have spent $3.6 million on ads suggesting Cavanaugh’s election could endanger the “blue dot,” as the 2nd District is called.
Nebraska is one of just two states that award their electoral votes by congressional district, and the Omaha-based seat has consistently given its one electoral college vote to Democrats in recent elections. While a single vote of 435 may not seem like much, the simplest path to the presidency for Democrats in 2024 relied on winning the so-called “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and then the Omaha seat, to get to exactly the 270 votes needed.
Republicans unsuccessfully pressured Nebraska’s unicameral and officially nonpartisan state legislature to change the rules in 2024. Breaking filibusters in the 49-member legislature requires 33 votes, and the liberal coalition in the legislature has exactly 17 seats at the moment. If Cavanaugh wins, GOP Gov. Jim Pillen would get to appoint a temporary replacement, which would be enough for Republicans to redraw congressional lines or change the electoral college vote rules — or so Powell’s supporters would have you believe.
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“Don’t let John Cavanaugh give away our Blue dot,” a narrator intones in the New Democrat Majority ad.
But national Democrats, by and large, don’t have the same concerns. A small number of Omaha-area Republicans have also resisted changing the rules, and it’s likely that the liberal coalition in the legislature will pick up additional seats in November. Their belief that the “blue dot” is probably safe is only reinforced by the GOP’s apparent decision to help Powell.
“I understand why everyone’s paranoid,” one House Democratic operative, requesting anonymity to speak frankly about a contested primary, told HuffPost. “But if the GOP really saw an opportunity to steal an electoral college vote, I don’t know if they would be hurting the candidate whose election could help them do it.”
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