Most voters in swing House districts fault Trump trade moves for high prices

As Donald Trump continues to slap tariffs on major trading partners, polling from a Democratic campaign arm finds that a majority of voters in districts likely to decide the majority in the House of Representatives blame the president’s trade policies for increasing their cost of living.

The survey, shared exclusively with the Guardian, also confirms that many voters are sour on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the GOP’s signature legislative accomplishment passed earlier this year that enacts Trump’s tax policies, pays for his immigration crackdown, and downsizes the Medicaid health insurance program for poor and disabled Americans.

“The public is turning on House Republicans and tired of their broken promises. Costs are rising, the GOP healthcare crisis is hurting millions of Americans and the public hates their disastrous economic agenda. Voters are ready for change and eager to give House Democrats back the majority in 2026,” said Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which conducted the poll.

The committee surveyed 1,000 likely voters earlier this month in 61 battleground districts, and found that 61% of respondents blamed Trump’s tariffs for raising prices, while a 52% majority of voters opposed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Trump last year won the districts surveyed by an average of 4%, but Democrats nonetheless led on the generic ballot ahead of the 2026 midterm elections by 47%, to the GOP’s 43%. The DCCC said the four-point split is higher than a similar poll of battleground districts it conducted in November 2017, ahead of the 2018 midterms in which Democrats gained 41 seats in the House and retook the majority.

The poll was conducted between 2 and 6 October – right after the government shut down following Democratic and Republican lawmakers failing to agree on legislation to continue funding. The DCCC found 43% of those surveyed blamed Trump and Republican lawmakers for the lapse in operations.

Trump has levied tariffs on a range of imported goods, including those from China. As of 25 September, average US tariffs on Chinese imports reached 58%, while Chinese tariffs reached 33%, according to analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Trump has also threatened levies of 100% on Chinese goods, in retaliation for Beijing imposing restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals key to many hi-tech components.