Josh Shapiro says Texas won't replace Pennsylvania as the 'ultimate swing state'

Democrats’ blue wave blew up the 2028 battle map. But Josh Shapiro insists Texas isn’t going to replace Pennsylvania as the “ultimate swing state.”

He needs it to be true.

Shapiro’s theory of the case for 2028 has long rested on his ability to win resoundingly and repeatedly in what has recently been the nation’s biggest battleground state. On Tuesday, he helped deliver Democrats four congressional flips and their first trifecta in Harrisburg in three decades, all while running up a more than 20-point margin in his own reelection bid. He plowed over $10 million into state Democrats’ campaign arms and helped recruit and cut ads for candidates across House and state Senate races. He also flipped 11 counties President Donald Trump won in 2024 and, his team argued in a post-election memo shared first with POLITICO, showed “unique strength” with voters skeptical of the Democratic Party.

It’s a significant show of force even in a wave election — one that could springboard him into a presidential bid if he chooses, even as Democrats turn their attention to redder turf.

“The common-sense approach we’ve taken to governing, the kind of candidates we recruited to run for Congress who won, I think that that can be a model for our party,” Shapiro told POLITICO by phone late last week. And “it’s going to be important that we share our Pennsylvania model from what I would maintain … is still the ultimate swing state.”

Shapiro continues to play coy about his presidential ambitions. He phoned Democrats’ primary kingmaker, Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), after the election, but declined to discuss the details. When POLITICO asked Shapiro his timeline to decide a 2028 run, he replied: “I just wrapped up a meeting with the legislative leaders and my senior team to work on our agenda going forward, and that's what I'm focused on right now.”

Here’s more from POLITICO’s chat with Shapiro, edited and condensed for length.

You’ve got your trifecta. What’s your No. 1 priority?

The first bill that will reach my desk will be to raise the minimum wage to 15 bucks an hour. I've been able to get a lot of stuff done through the Republican Legislature, but that's an example of something that hasn't.

Is signing onto the National Popular Vote Compact something you’d be interested in?

I have said that I am open to that, I think I’ve voiced some positivity toward it. As it relates to the trifecta, though, the leaders and I agreed that we would speak with one voice in announcing our initial agenda.

A lot of Democrats are saying the biggest message that they got out of this wave election was the economy. Do you think that that's the biggest takeaway?

I think in part that is correct, and that's why the first new law I want to pass in Pennsylvania is to put more money in people's pockets. I also think there was something deeper. … Substantively the issue that obviously mattered most was the high cost of everything; I think underneath that was a real fear that people had about the direction this country was going in, and they wanted to use their power to change it.

Do you think the path to the presidency is moving out of the Blue Wall and into states like Texas, into the Sun Belt?

Democrats are proving that we can win everywhere. … We added back to the Blue Wall. Ohio, with Amy [Acton]'s incredible victory there. I was proud to campaign for her.

We’re showing we can win in these southern states. So I think the takeaway from Tuesday night is the map got a whole lot bigger for Democrats. And so long as Republicans continue to follow Trump and [Vice President JD] Vance off the cliff, their map is getting much smaller.

Do you think that Texas will take over from Pennsylvania as the nation's biggest swing state?

I mean, they're a big state, and they were just won by two outstanding Democrats. I was so impressed with both of them and how they ran their campaigns. And I imagine Texas is going to have a lot to say about the future leadership in our country.

But not necessarily taking over Pennsylvania’s spot —

I mean, come on. I’m Pennsylvania first. You’re never going to get me to come off of Pennsylvania being the ultimate swing state.

Abdul El-Sayed told me he hopes the next Democratic presidential nominee shares his views on Israel. He opposes military aid to Israel. Do you agree that that's the stance the nominee, whoever it is, should take?

Well, he is one voice in our party. And I look forward to getting a chance to talk to him and learn more about how he really thinks and how he really views these issues, and having a thoughtful conversation with him.

Is there anyone coming out of Tuesday who you want to talk to, who you think ‘that person has a good message for the party’?

I've talked to probably more than 20 people across the country since Tuesday night who won races at all levels. I've been incredibly impressed by the talent that chose to run for office and won in really tough states. I think I can learn from a lot of them, and I want to learn from them, and I want to listen to them, and I salute their victories.

A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.