In Texas, a political group bets $6 million on Latino voters coming back to Democrats

A left-leaning group is planning to spend $6 million organizing Latino voters in Texas, a group that has trended away from Democrats but is pivotal to their hopes of picking up seats in Congress.

Somos Votantes has started a $2 million statewide voter education push centered on door-to-door conversations and voter registration. Its affiliated political committee, Somos PAC, is preparing a $4 million advertising campaign focused on three South Texas House districts, where they aim to channel voter angst about the economy into support for Democratic candidates in Republican-leaning districts.

"We're really hoping that we can reconsolidate support for Democrats by presenting the positive economic vision that Democratic candidates in these House districts have," said Melissa Morales, the founder of Somos Votantes.

Texas is at the crossroads of the fight for control of the U.S. House in the November midterms, and winning back Hispanics who were drawn to President Donald Trump in 2024 will be key to Democrats' chances there.

Last fall, Republicans in the Texas Legislature, acting on pressure from Trump, redrew district boundaries in the GOP's favor, aiming to pick up as many as five Democratic House seats. They made a bet that the decade-long shift of working-class Hispanics toward the GOP was not an aberration, though that's far from a foregone conclusion.

Somos PAC is targeting three districts where Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024: The 15th District, where Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz is facing Tejano music star Bobby Pulido; the 23rd, which is currently vacant after Republican Rep. Tony Gonzalez resigned after admitting an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide; and the 35th, a largely new district created in the recent redistricting.

Morales said Somos PAC is targeting harder-to-win districts rather than the top-tier battlegrounds getting a flood of national attention. Those districts would make the the difference between Democrats eking out a small majority and running up the score with a 20-seat majority, she said.

"If we're going to get to that 20, we're going to have to start investing in some of these more reach districts, and we're going to have to do it early," Morales said.

In Texas, that means winning back Latinos.

While Trump gained with Hispanic voters in 2024, opinions of the president have fallen among Hispanics overall since he took office, according to AP-NORC polling. Only 29% of Hispanic adults nationally approved of his performance as president in a June AP-NORC poll, an apparent drop from 41% at the start of his second term.

Latino voters have historically been largely aligned with the Democratic Party but during the 2024 election, they shifted significantly toward Trump. A majority still supported Democrat Kamala Harris for president, but Trump made big gains: 43% of Latino voters nationally voted for him, compared with 35% in the 2020 presidential election, a change attributed in part to their concerns about the economy.

But it's not enough for former Trump voters to lose faith in the president, Morales said. They need a reason to vote for Democrats, and that's where the ads come in.

"We risk people staying home because they're disillusioned about everything," she said.