18 hours ago

In Decade Since Paris Agreement, Climate Outlook Has Improved Dramatically

A new report finds that the world is headed for around 2.8 degrees C of warming by the end of this century, far less than was forecast before the Paris Climate Agreement. Still, countries remain far off track from the international target of 2 degrees C.

Ahead of the 2015 Paris climate negotiations, a U.N. report found that the world was on course for 3.7 to 4.8 degrees C of warming without further action to cut emissions. That is a level of warming that is incompatible with “an organized, equitable, and civilized global community,” according to climate scientist Kevin Anderson of the University of Manchester.

Over the last 10 years, however, the cost of clean energy has dropped dramatically. The price of onshore wind has fallen 70 percent, while prices for solar and batteries have fallen by roughly 90 percent.

A new analysis from the Rhodium Group, a climate think tank, sees emissions from the power sector dropping in half by midcentury, helping to keep warming in check. It projects the world is now headed for between 2.3 and 3.4 degrees C of warming.

Still, while countries have likely avoided the most dire climate future, warming is almost certain to surpass 2 degrees C, the target set forth in the Paris Agreement, without much deeper cuts to emissions.

A separate report from an international team of scientists warns that efforts to stem climate change remain woefully insufficient, and that warming is already pushing the Earth into dangerous new territory. Last year was the hottest on record and likely the hottest in at least 125,000 years. Climate change is fueling dangerous heat, storms, floods, droughts, and fires globally, and warming is only gaining pace.

“The accelerating climate crisis is now a major driver of global instability,” scientists write. “Avoiding every fraction of a degree of warming is critically important.”