How a new bus line in Philadelphia is defying post-pandemic transit trends

When the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority launched the 49 bus route in Philadelphia in early 2019, those who most benefited were older adults and people who already ride the bus – and not commuters who were persuaded to ditch their cars for public transportation, according to our new research.

Some of the largest benefits of Route 49 came in saved time and fewer transfers for existing users of other transit routes.

We are a professor of city planning and a professor of statistics and data science who recently published a study on Route 49, SEPTA’s newest local bus service, in the peer-reviewed journal Transportation Research Record.

Route 49 launched in early 2019 and was the first local bus service that SEPTA added to its system in nearly a decade. It connects two residential Philadelphia neighborhoods – Strawberry Mansion in North Philadelphia and Grays Ferry in South Philadelphia – with the job-rich University City area in West Philadelphia.

Public transit agencies often try to court “choice” riders – people who have a reasonable chance of choosing to either drive or use public transportation for a given trip, and who tend to be higher income.

SEPTA, however, didn’t necessarily focus on choice riders with the design of Route 49. But planners at the agency did tell us during our data collection that many commuters to University City don’t take public transit.

We found that early riders of Route 49 tended to be previous transit riders who seldom drove before the line’s launch. They took other SEPTA buses, or did not make that trip.

Riders ages 65 and older, who are less likely to be commuters, were even more likely to have simply switched bus routes to make the same trip they regularly made before the new service line began.

Why it matters

While ridership on most SEPTA routes has declined in the post-pandemic era, Route 49 is one of the only Philly bus or train lines to see ridership growth. It had the largest post-COVID rebound of any bus line in SEPTA’s network.

For new bus and rail lines to be financially sustainable, they must attract enough riders. The fares those riders pay allow agencies to run services more regularly and have the line be cost effective.

While it’s always difficult to attract new riders, the past few years have been especially challenging for U.S. transit agencies. National transit ridership remains only about 80% of what it was when the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020.

Getting people back onto buses and trains will require agencies to understand what attracts people to new transit lines. If public transit agencies want to recapture ridership and echo the success of bus services like Route 49, it may be best for them to talk to current users rather than potential public transit converts.

How we do our work

To understand how new riders used Route 49, we boarded Route 49 buses throughout the route and conducted in-person surveys with over 350 riders in early 2019. We wanted to capture feedback and data from users of the service shortly after it was launched.

In addition to asking riders what they used Route 49 for and how they took the same trip before its launch, we recorded characteristics such as age, income and gender.

What’s next

Drawing on our 2019 survey data, we plan to explore how new Route 49 riders learned about the transit line and decided to begin riding the new service. Did they hear about it from agency flyers or websites? From seeing new bus lines on the road, or from friends discussing it? Analyzing these answers can help transit agencies enhance access for all travelers.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

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