GOP polling memo shows Cornyn gaining on Paxton in Texas Senate primary

Embattled incumbent John Cornyn is gaining steam in the Texas Senate primary, and an internal memo obtained by POLITICO shows Republican leaders want donors to pump money into the race to help the incumbent Senator edge out his rival, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a top Senate GOP super PAC that drew up the document dated Aug. 26, concedes Paxton “continues to be a weak candidate who puts the Senate seat at risk in a general election,” but it also said Cornyn has considerably closed the gap. Previous polling showed him down by an average of about 17 points in public polling.

Polls conducted by Texas Southern University, Emerson College and Echelon Insights show Paxton now has a modest 5 to 8 percentage point advantage. SLF’s latest polling, which was conducted from Aug. 17 to 19, shows Paxton is now leading Cornyn by 8 percentage points. A May poll conducted by SLF had the four-term incumbent down 16 points.

The two have been locked in a contentious battle for the nomination that Republicans fear could leave them vulnerable in an otherwise solidly red state. Recent public polling has consistently shown Paxton with a modest head-to-head advantage over the four-term incumbent even after significant outside spending on Cornyn's behalf which has closed the margins for the controversial challenger.

This race has been particularly worrying for the GOP because the political profile of Paxton, a MAGA darling who has been tarnished by impeachments and accusations about his misuse of power as Texas’s attorney general.w/

“Senator John Cornyn’s path to re-election has never been stronger, and we’re fully committed to supporting him as he fights for President Trump and Texas in the U.S. Senate,” said Chris Gustafson, a spokesperson for SLF. “Senator Cornyn’s support will only grow as voters learn about his proven record — and contrast it with Ken Paxton’s disgraceful lack of integrity.”

Other major Republican groups like the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, have come after Paxton for other scandals, too, including his wife’s divorce over his alleged adultery. The NRSC did not respond to a request for comment.

The memo is effectively a plea to donors to pour more money into Cornyn’s campaign to quash Paxton’s momentum before it leads to a messier and more expensive primary that could drain GOP war chests.

Democrats are hoping to capitalize on this discord to flip a coveted Senate seat during the 2026 general election.

“Republicans are dumping tens of millions of dollars into Texas and calling the race a ‘f–ing disaster’ because they know it will leave them drained of resources and stuck with a badly damaged nominee,” said Maeve Coyle, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Senate Democrat’s campaign arm.

Already, Democratic Rep. Colin Allred has announced another bid for Senate, after coming up short against Sen. Ted Cruz last cycle. , and sState Sen. James Talarico, who was part of the group of Texas Democrats that left the state in protest of the Legislature's Trump-urged redistricting to help Republicans net more House seats, has also been openly flirting with a bid.

But flipping Texas, even if Paxton emerges as the nominee, would be expensive in a year when Democrats are already on their back foot, defending two seats in states the president won as they try to claw their way back to the majority. Democrats have few pickup opportunities across a map that favors Republicans.

So far, major Republican donors like Texans for a Conservative Majority and One Nation have juiced up Cornyn’s campaign by giving him over $3 million each from June 1 to Aug. 22, which the report calls “considerable, though not substantial.”

The one-page letter suggests that money raised would go toward improving Cornyn’s “conservative image,” a chokepoint that Republicans are just starting to soothe “thanks to outside spending.” Opponents like Paxton have questioned Cornyn’s MAGA credentials after he impugned President Donald Trump’s candidacy in 2024 and supported a bipartisan gun safety bill following the Uvalde school shooting in 2022. The memo does not specify how the PAC would spend this money to bolster Cornyn’s image.  A June poll showed self-identified MAGA Republicans heavily favoring the challenger.

“With relatively light spending, Cornyn’s ballot position has improved, reflecting Paxton’s soft support and dispelling the narrative that this race was already over,” the memo reads. “The time is now to reposition Cornyn and change the dynamics of the race. This will require substantial resources but will be far less costly than a competitive General Election next November.”

CORRECTION: This article originally misstated a reference to Paxton when describing the memo.