Ex-Trump voters swung hard to Democrats over costs in NJ & VA, new research shows

Donald Trump voters who backed Democrats in two key governor’s races last month did so because of their alarm over cost-of-living issues, according to the results from focus groups conducted for Democrats and obtained by POLITICO — the latest sign that a flagging economy will be a problem for the GOP heading into the midterms, if Democrats can keep their focus on it.

Post-election research of Trump or third-party 2024 voters who flipped to Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia last month found that economic concerns were top of mind for these voters. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) made cost-of-living the centerpiece of their campaign messaging, and it helped propel them to double-digit victories.

The findings credited Spanberger and Sherrill’s victory for staying “laser-focused” on the economy “while avoiding partisan finger-pointing,” while these swing voters felt “disillusioned by Republican leadership on costs.”

The four focus groups were commissioned by the centrist Center Aisle Coalition, founded by former Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.), and conducted by Impact Research. Democratic pollster Molly Murphy, who conducted the focus groups, briefed some House Democratic members on its findings Tuesday, according to one person who attended and a second person who was briefed on them, both granted anonymity to describe private meetings.

The research mirrors a raft of recent public polling, showing voters' deepening concerns about the cost-of-living. Nearly half of Americans said everyday costs, like utility bills and groceries, are difficult to afford, according to The POLITICO Poll conducted last month. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent in November, its highest level in more than four years, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

Trump stirred fresh anxiety among Republicans over his ability to message on the economy last week during a Pennsylvania rally, billed as a speech focused on cost-of-living concerns. But Trump veered off script, urging austerity during the holiday shopping season and referred to affordability as a “hoax.”

Democrats argue the president’s response to the economy gives them an opening with one-time Trump supporters — if their candidates can neutralize what they describe as potential negatives.

“These voters have deep concerns about Democrats broadly,” the memo, summarizing findings from the focus group interviews, said, calling the Dems' brand “weak and ill-defined.” These voters, the memo said, are still concerned that Democrats' position on “transgender youth policies, spending too much money on handouts, loose border and crime policies, and generally failing to focus on the majority of Americans.”

But Sherrill and Spanberger “threaded the needle of defining their opponents as Trump’s puppets without letting themselves also be defined as the Resistance,” the memo said, referring to Jack Ciattarelli and Winsome Earl Sears, the Republican nominees who lost by double-digits.

Democrats’ “renewed focus on healthcare is reframing what they think Democrats’ priorities are and helping them understand what Democratic leadership after the midterms could look like,” the memo said.