Democratic poll warns GOP redistricting could cost Republicans up to 7 points in competitive seats

The Donald Trump-backed mid-cycle redistricting effort in Texas is already leaving a sour taste in voters’ mouths, according to a new Democratic polling memo obtained by POLITICO.

A new poll conducted by Texas-based Z to A Research, which does polling for progressive clients, found that 63 percent of likely voters across 22 of Texas’ congressional districts — including 41 percent of Republicans — think the effort to redraw lines in the GOP’s favor is unnecessary.

“As the State Legislature cowers under order from the Trump White House, they need to know that voters are not on their side,” said a memo from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which commissioned the poll alongside the Democratic House Majority PAC.

The memo underscores the high-stakes game that parties are playing with redistricting as they battle for control of a House with a razor-thin margin. If the electorate is similar to 2024, redrawing the maps could leave Republicans with an advantage. But Democrats are hoping for a blue wave and a large backlash to Trump’s policies.

In the memo, the DCCC accuses Republicans in the state of focusing on the redistricting effort instead of flood relief, which is another topic on the agenda for the legislature’s special session, which began on Monday.

Fifty-three percent of the likely voters polled thought that the legislature was prioritizing redistricting over flood relief, according to the memo, while 32 percent did not, and 54 percent also thought the Texas government is doing a “poor” or “not so good” job of responding to the flood damage.

The poll was conducted via a text-to-web survey of 2,449 likely 2026 voters across 22 of Texas’ congressional districts. At least 100 voters were surveyed in each district, 12 of which are represented by Republicans and 10 of which are represented by Democrats. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 2 percent.

After being told that the legislature is prioritizing redistricting over flood relief, 62 percent of the voters said they would be less likely to vote for a Republican. The figure rises to 67 percent of independents, and 21 percent of them were 2024 Trump voters, the memo said.

The poll also set up some possible primaries, and “across all 22 congressional districts surveyed, in no hypothetical Republican primary matchup did a congressional Republican incumbent garner more than 50 percent of the vote among Republican voters.” The memo did not specify the exact primary matchups.

DCCC Executive Director Julie Merz also wrote that the redistricting plan could backfire if Democrats have a strong year in 2026.

“Any new map Texas Republicans draw will almost certainly increase the number of competitive districts, thereby endangering more congressional Republican incumbents. It’s basic math,” Merz wrote.

Ultimately, Democrats know that redrawing up to five seats in Texas — as well as a couple more in Ohio — hurts their chances of taking the majority. The move by Texas has also forced Democrats to weigh their own redistricting options, though most of them face more legal hurdles.

It’s unclear what map Texas will ultimately adopt, but drawing the Trump-requested five seats does lend to the possibility of a so-called dummymander. Still, Republicans are adamant that it’s doable.