Can Democrats find their footing? Tight New Jersey governor's race tests Trump's pull

By Joseph Ax

PRINCETON, New Jersey (Reuters) -The closely contested New Jersey governor's race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli has set new spending records and drawn political heavyweights, as both national parties seek an early gauge of voter sentiment nine months into Republican President Donald Trump's term.

New Jersey and Virginia are the only states holding gubernatorial elections on Tuesday. Democrats, locked out of power in Washington, are hoping a clean sweep can provide a burst of momentum ahead of next year's midterm battle for control of Congress.

The focus on New Jersey has been especially intense, after the state swung toward Trump by a greater margin from 2020 to 2024 than all but one other state. The Republican and Democratic gubernatorial campaign arms have funneled more than $34 million into the general election, according to campaign finance records, helping fuel what is projected to be in excess of $200 million spent on the election including the primary contests.

Sherrill, a 53-year-old congresswoman and former Navy helicopter pilot, has held a small but steady single-digit lead in opinion polls over Ciattarelli, a 63-year-old former state assemblyman and small business owner who is mounting his third consecutive run for governor. Democratic Governor Phil Murphy cannot run for reelection after serving two four-year terms.

LEADING FIGURES TURN OUT TO RALLY SUPPORT

Both candidates seek to defy historical trends.

If Sherrill prevails, it will mark the first time in 60 years that New Jersey voters have elected a governor from the same party for three consecutive terms. Ciattarelli, meanwhile, would be only the second governor elected from the same party as the sitting president in the last nine elections.

While Democrats hold a two-to-one advantage in voter registration, Trump's merely six-point loss in 2024 and Ciattarelli's own surprisingly narrow three-point defeat to Murphy in 2021 have given Republicans hope of an upset.

"Sherrill definitely has a lead, but it is not an insurmountable one,” said Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University in New Jersey. “Either Sherrill or Ciattarelli could win.”

Most high-quality polls have shown Sherrill with a lead of five to eight percentage points, according to a tracker maintained by the New York Times, though an Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill survey released on Thursday gave Sherrill only a 49%-48% lead with 2% undecided.

A Sherrill loss in Democratic-leaning New Jersey would represent a significant blow to the party. The Democratic National Committee, which hosted a get-out-the-vote call with Sherrill and Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger on Wednesday, has made record investments in both states.

In Virginia, Spanberger, 46, a former congresswoman and CIA officer, has held a comfortable lead in opinion polls over her opponent, Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, 61.

New York City is also holding its mayoral election on Tuesday. State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, 33, whose nimble campaign has transformed him from a little-known lawmaker to a rising Democratic star, leads in polls over former Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo, 67, and Republican Curtis Sliwa, 71.

Leading Democratic figures are campaigning with Sherrill in the closing weeks, including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Maryland Governor Wes Moore – all potential 2028 presidential candidates. Former President Barack Obama will rally alongside Sherrill on Saturday.

Trump, who endorsed Ciattarelli, held a tele-rally for the Republican before embarking on his current Asia trip.

The president has cast a shadow over the race. His administration froze funding for new Hudson River train tunnels to Manhattan to punish Democrats he blames for a long-running government shutdown – a major issue for New Jersey’s sizable commuter population.

Sherrill has used that decision to sharpen her argument that Ciattarelli is too beholden to Trump, pointing to Ciattarelli’s answer during a recent debate that he would give Trump an “A” grade thus far.

Ciattarelli, who distanced himself from Trump during his 2021 gubernatorial campaign, has moved closer to the president this cycle, though he has stopped short of a full MAGA transformation.

“He’s had to do quite a delicate dance this time around,” said Ashley Koning, the director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University.

RACE TURNS TO PERSONAL ATTACKS

Ciattarelli has made a point of campaigning in urban areas that are traditionally more Democratic to try to replicate some of the gains Trump made with non-white voters, according to Mike DuHaime, a Republican strategist who advised former Governor Chris Christie’s campaigns.

“The greatest variable is whether or not Jack can get some of these Trump voters to come out in a non-presidential year,” he said. “Will those voters vote for someone who’s not Donald Trump?”

Both candidates have focused on how to make New Jersey, one of the most expensive states in the country, more affordable. Sherrill has tied Ciattarelli to Trump’s tariffs and to Republican cuts to healthcare, while Ciattarelli has blamed Murphy and his fellow Democrats for the high cost of living.

But the race has also taken a decidedly personal turn in recent weeks, with plenty of ad hominem attacks.

Ciattarelli has accused Sherrill of playing down her ties to a cheating scandal at the Naval Academy. She said she was barred from walking at her commencement ceremony because she would not turn in her classmates but was not directly involved.

“Well, this seems to be now the playbook of Republicans, just looking to attack anyone who's served,” Sherrill said at a recent campaign event in West Windsor, New Jersey.

Sherrill, meanwhile, has accused Ciattarelli of helping to cause opioid deaths through a medical publishing business he owned.

The Republican has called that a “baseless, reckless lie” and has vowed to file a defamation lawsuit against Sherrill.

(Reporting by Joseph Ax; Editing by Paul Thomasch and Howard Goller)