Bill Cassidy’s political survival might hinge on Trump's silence

Bill Cassidy’s political career was on life support not so long ago. Now Senate Republicans are waiting to see if President Donald Trump will let him make a miraculous recovery.

The potential U-turn comes after the two-term Louisiana Republican was written off by much of his party’s MAGA base when he voted in 2021 to convict Trump over his alleged role in fomenting the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. But since January, Cassidy has stuck closely behind Trump, touting his support for the president’s nominees and brushing off questions about his relationship with the White House.

That fraught relationship is set to come back into focus Thursday, when he’ll face a high-profile sparring partner in the Trump administration: HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is appearing before the Senate Finance Committee.

Cassidy, a doctor trained as a liver specialist, voted to confirm Kennedy earlier this year while airing misgivings about the nominee’s unorthodox medical views. In recent months, that criticism erupted again and again after Kennedy pushed out a panel of vaccine experts, and, last week, ousted the head of the CDC.

An open clash in Thursday’s hearing could complicate the efforts being undertaken by top Senate Republicans to privately urge Trump to back Cassidy. In their view, the Louisianan is a team player and diligent legislator who has a significant fundraising advantage over his field of conservative challengers.

But some close to Trump view an endorsement of a pro-impeachment Republican as a bridge too far and are instead suggesting the president could simply stay neutral in the Louisiana race next year.

Trump’s silence is a real possibility, said five Republicans granted anonymity to discuss private conversations, but those who have spoken with him about the race recently believe he hasn't made a final decision about what to do. Trump officials don’t expect the president to weigh in on the race anytime soon, according to two people granted anonymity to discuss internal conversations.

Cassidy said in a brief interview that he, too, expects Trump to stay neutral in the primary.

“Of course I prefer his endorsement, but if it’s not an endorsement, neutral is probably the next best thing,” he said.

“We’ve worked very well together, and I’ve worked hard for his agenda,” Cassidy added. “And I think he recognizes that.”

Even staying on the sidelines would be a shift from just months ago when some conservatives privately expected Trump to formally back a challenger, effectively delivering a kiss of death to Cassidy’s political career in a deeply red state. It would also require enormous restraint over many months from Trump, who is known for lashing out against those he perceives as wronging him. 

Cassidy “has been really good working with the White House and there's a lot of people that surround the president right now that know that,” said one Senate GOP colleague granted anonymity to speak candidly.

The senator added that while the impeachment vote is “personal” it “doesn't mean people can't work past it,” citing Trump’s willingness to overlook past criticism from his now-vice president, JD Vance.

Cassidy isn’t in the clear yet. Louisiana Republicans eagerly want a signal from Trump about whether he’ll get involved in the race. Gov. Jeff Landry has privately floated Rep. Julia Letlow as a potential Cassidy rival but indicated last month that he’s waiting to see whom Trump backs.

Top Trump political aide James Blair is expected to attend Landry's annual gator hunt this weekend, and Louisiana Republicans are hoping to shake loose whether Trump will back someone in the race, according to three Republicans granted anonymity to candidly discuss the matter.

Letlow — a close ally of fellow Speaker Mike Johnson, another Louisiana Republican — is seen as a particularly formidable opponent for Cassidy. She is mulling whether to jump in the race, and Republicans believe her decision could come within a matter of weeks.

Unlike some of his other hard-right challengers, Letlow has broader appeal outside the party’s conservative base. She has also been an ardent Trump ally, and Republicans believe she will only launch a run with the president’s tacit backing if not an outright endorsement.

Otherwise Cassidy’s many conservative rivals appear at risk of cannibalizing the GOP primary vote, with state Treasurer John Fleming having a modest advantage over the field in fundraising and name recognition.

Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.), a hard-right firebrand who flirted with a Senate bid himself before ruling it out, said the race is currently “up for grabs” but that Cassidy is “running a very energetic campaign” and “could win.”

“There’s some good guys in the race, and Sen. Cassidy may very well end up being the senator again,” said Higgins. “He’s got issues with winning, but everybody else in the race has issues with winning as well.”

Internal polling for Cassidy has also shown him with a sizable lead over two GOP rivals. In addition to his own war chest of more than $8.7 million as of the end of June, outside groups supporting him have also raised millions.

But a swath of other internal GOP polling shows Cassidy effectively without a political home, bleeding support among both the MAGA base and moderates, and there’s skepticism in some corners that he would be able to survive without a bear hug from Trump.

Some Republicans have privately speculated for months that Trump was only waiting for his domestic policy megabill to pass and for more of his major nominations to clear the Senate before turning on Cassidy. Under that timeline, things would be ripe for some presidential meddling.

One Senate Republican who is supporting Cassidy and has spoken to the president about the race said Trump “at least right now, has opted to not say or do anything.”

“That may change at some point,” the GOP senator added. “I’d love to see him get behind Bill.”

There have been positive signs for Cassidy. Trump has given him shoutouts during multiple events, including in July when he thanked him for attending an event and “helping out.” It is a sharp reversal from last year when he blasted Cassidy on social media as “disloyal lightweight.”

White House officials are aware that moving against Cassidy now could invite backlash from a lawmaker who chairs the Senate HELP Committee, which oversees health policy, and who sits on the powerful Finance Committee, which has an even broader portfolio.

On Thursday, for instance, Finance is set to advance two Kennedy deputies at HHS. Cassidy could single-handedly block them from confirmation on the panel where Republicans have only a single-seat advantage. He said Wednesday he hadn’t taken a position on the nominations.

But it’s his tumultuous relationship with RFK Jr. himself that has gotten the most scrutiny. He absorbed backlash from some Republicans on and off Capitol Hill as he mulled whether or not to support Kennedy’s nomination earlier this year. He ultimately backed Kennedy but has been one of few Republicans to raise concerns over his shakeups at the CDC and a key vaccine advisory panel.

Ahead of his highly anticipated questioning Thursday, Cassidy has tried to emphasize that his public scrutiny of Kennedy’s decisions isn’t personal. Hebrushed off a question about whether he regretted helping confirm him.

"That's really nothing to do with this,” Cassidy told reporters. “This is about: How do we protect the children of the United States of America? … I’m not presupposing anybody is right or wrong. We’ve got to get to the bottom of it.”

Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.