As Republicans carve up Black districts, Democrats pivot to a new midterm message

Democrats are changing their redistricting strategy — again.

Just two weeks after House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries promised to invoke “maximum warfare, everywhere, all the time,” his side has been forced to shift drastically into a defensive posture thanks to a pair of court rulings that moved the House map toward the GOP.

Now, with little to no chances left to redistrict ahead of November to counter GOP gains of 10 favorable House seats or more, Democrats are stuck doing something they know all too well: blaming President Donald Trump, and hoping it will spur voters to turn out for them in the midterms.

In statements and interviews since Virginia’s Supreme Court struck down state Democrats’ new congressional map and the high court narrowed the Voting Rights Act, the party is arguing that Republicans’ aggressive moves to dismantle Black- and Hispanic-majority districts in the South will outrage voters of color and spur them to the polls in record numbers.

“Given the highly unfavorable political environment confronting House Republicans, the extremists will not meaningfully benefit from their scandalous gerrymandering scheme,” Jeffries said in a Monday “Dear Colleague" letter. “Quite the opposite. Democratic enthusiasm and resolve have grown more intense.”

Democrats are looking to turn that argument into a political silver lining. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has begun recruiting candidates to run in Southern states where GOP lawmakers are mulling redraws — like South Carolina, where the party is betting Republicans will miscalculate and accidentally create a new battleground seat, according to one person familiar with the effort granted anonymity to discuss it.

There are also numerous districts on the DCCC’s list of battleground seats where Black voters — who are being targeted by the Southern redraws — make up significant shares of the population and could be motivated to vote by what Democrats see as attempts to suppress the community’s sway.

“Democrats are gonna be able to go into African American communities and say, ‘Republicans are doing everything they can to take away your political power,’” said Democratic strategist Ian Russell, who served as the DCCC political director in 2014 and 2016 and still works on House races across the country. “That's a really salient message.”

But Democrats are inarguably on worse footing in their bid to retake the House than they were less than one year ago. Republicans have drawn maps across the country, starting in Texas, in hopes of shoring up their majority.

Democrats have had some wins: California Gov. Gavin Newsom backed a measure in his state last year that gave Democrats an edge in five more seats, countering Texas. But the courtroom loss in Virginia was big, and it came after Democratic-aligned groups spent more than $60 million convincing voters to back the state’s redistricting effort.

Republicans are celebrating the redistricting push that once looked unlikely to create gains for the party.

“Two weeks ago people were dooming and asking wAs rEdIsTrIcTiNg wOrTh iT?” James Blair, a top political lieutenant for President Donald Trump who hatched the redistricting plan, wrote on X over the weekend. “…16 net seat swing to GOP…”

The party is still hoping for some legal victories. Virginia Democrats filed an emergency appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday, asking justices to issue a temporary stay on the state court’s decision. And Jeffries laid out other legal challenges in Missouri, Florida and Wisconsin in his “Dear Colleague” letter, something National Democratic Redistricting Committee President John Bisignano pointed to in an interview.

“I'm not ready to call 2026 completely closed yet,” Bisignano said. “But I recognize it's obviously late in the year.”

On Saturday, Jeffries huddled by phone with the Virginia Democratic delegation to weigh next steps, according to one person briefed on the call and granted anonymity to discuss it. One theory floated on the call — though not taken too seriously — was lowering the forced retirement age of the Virginia Supreme Court in order to replace those judges and get a new ruling, the person said. But Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger and other top state Democrats have already rebuffed the idea.

The consensus among lawmakers on the call was to focus their resources on two GOP-held districts in the state that are already in play. Virginia GOP Reps. Jen Kiggans and Rob Wittman were already top targets for Democrats this cycle.

But that decision makes one thing clear. Democrats’ redistricting fight — at least in 2026 — will be played out in a political messaging war and not through mapmaking itself.

There’s also a growing blame game about failed efforts to redistrict in Illinois and Maryland, including frustration with Democratic Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson and Illinois Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker, according to two national Democrats, who were granted anonymity to discuss internal conversations.

The party was unable to roll Ferguson in order to pass a new map, despite Gov. Wes Moore’s lobbying and pressure from other Democratic groups. In Illinois, one national Democratic operative was frustrated that Pritzker tied his state’s redistricting fight to Indiana, given the already-clear reality at the time that other GOP states — like Florida — would eventually move forward with redraws.

“Maryland could still take action,” Bisignano said. “People in the state could take action if they found the will — and so far they have not.”

But that move is still unlikely, and for now, Democrats are stuck placing the blame on Republicans and hoping it lands.

“The American people see that Republicans have been trying to rig the system because they know they are losing across the country,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said in a Monday podcast appearance. “Instead of listening and actually sitting down with people across the country and understanding the struggles they’re facing … [Republicans] decided the only way that they can stay in power is to break the system.”