A high-stakes Senate primary race in Texas is getting heated, with fireworks on both sides

In most election years, Texas is largely an afterthought, for good reason. Republicans have had a stranglehold on the Lone Star State for three decades. The last time they lost a statewide race for any office was in 1994. It’s been even longer since Texans elected a Democrat to the Senate or went blue during a presidential election.

No one is taking Texas for granted this year, though. The national mood has shifted dramatically against Republicans since President Trump returned to the White House. In race after race across the country, Democrats have gained remarkable ground compared to their past performances. That includes a special election for a seat in the Texas state legislature in a historically deep-red district earlier this month, which the Democrat won by 14 points.

One of Texas’s two seats in the U.S. Senate is up for grabs in this year’s midterms. The way things have been trending recently, both parties have put a spotlight on that contest as a crucial pivot point in deciding whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate for the final two years of Trump’s time in the White House.

The midterm elections aren’t until November. But voting in the party primaries starts next week. Right now, both sides are locked in incredibly tight — and, at times, deeply contentious — primary contests to decide who will be their candidates in the general election. The outcome of these intraparty battles could be a major factor in deciding whether Democrats can finally end their decades-long losing streak in Texas.

Forecasters are giving Democrats a strong chance of taking control of the House of Representatives after the midterms, but flipping the Senate appears to be a much bigger challenge. To gain the majority, Democrats will have to sweep every competitive race across the country and pull off at least one upset in a traditionally red state. Texas may be their best opportunity to do it.

Here’s a rundown of where things stand in both party primaries and how the outcomes might influence the ultimate result later this year.

Democratic primary

There are two major candidates on the Democratic side: State legislator James Talarico and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett. In terms of the policies they support, Talarico and Crockett are relatively similar. Both fit comfortably within the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and support things like universal health care, gun control and reforms to the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown.

In terms of their approach, however, the two candidates could not be more different. Talarico, a former public school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, has positioned himself as a consolidator who is seeking to bridge the partisan divide and connect with Texans from across the political spectrum.

“I’m not writing off any voters or any community,” he said during an appearance on The View earlier this month.

Crockett, on the other hand, has earned a reputation as one of the most confrontational Democrats in Congress during her three years in the House of Representatives. She has become a national figure thanks to a series of viral moments spurred by her blunt, unapologetic style. She made headlines in 2024 with her personal criticisms of former GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, whom she described as having a “bleach-blonde, bad-built, butch body.” She has also critiqued members of her own party for being “so freakin’ polite.”

This approach has made her a target for Republicans. Trump has singled her out specifically on multiple occasions, often describing her as a “low IQ person.”

The GOP reportedly launched an effort last year to convince Crockett to join the race, believing that she would prove to be too divisive for the swing voters that Democrats need on their side to stand a chance of winning in a red state like Texas.

Despite their glaring differences, Talarico and Crockett had largely avoided attacking each other directly through most of the primary campaign. That changed last week when Colin Allred, who was Talarico’s main primary opponent before he dropped out of the race in December, accused Talarico of describing him as a “mediocre Black man” during a private conversation with a social media influencer.

Talarico responded by saying that his comments, which reportedly were not recorded, had been misconstrued. “I described Congressman Allred’s method of campaigning as mediocre … I would never attack him on the basis of race,” he wrote in a statement.

Crockett has said she doesn’t fully believe Talarico’s explanation and has instead described his alleged statement as an example of the types of things that “well-intentioned white folk” say about minorities when they’re “behind closed doors.”

A group backing Talarico also released a rare negative ad targeting Crockett last week that called her candidacy “a gift to Republicans.”

The most recent poll of the Democratic primary showed Crockett with a significant lead, but that came just a couple of weeks after a different poll showed Talarico well out ahead and another suggesting the race was essentially a toss-up. Despite claims that Crockett would perform worse in the general election, both Democrats ran between 1 and 2 points behind their potential Republican opponents in a recent survey of general election matchups.

Republican primary

While the Democratic primary only became testy within the last week or so, the gloves have been off on the Republican side since the very beginning.

Sen. John Cornyn is trying to keep the Senate seat he’s held since 2002, but he’s facing an aggressive challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Cornyn has comfortably defeated his Democratic challenger in each of his four previous Senate campaigns. He has also been a reliable vote for Trump’s legislative agenda, including voting along with the president 100% of the time last year.

Despite Cornyn’s record, Paxton has argued that he isn’t conservative enough for today’s Republican Party.

“For years, John Cornyn has betrayed President Trump and the America First movement,” he wrote on social media while announcing his Senate campaign last year. Paxton has kept up that line of attack ever since. Last week, he claimed that the only people Cornyn is willing to fight against are “Donald Trump, gun owners, and the voices in his head.” He also recently published a lengthy official legal filing inaccurately accusing Cornyn of supporting diversity, equity and inclusion nearly 30 years ago.

Paxton has faced serious legal issues during his tenure as attorney general, including accusations of corruption that nearly caused him to be kicked out of office in 2023.

Cornyn has repeatedly brought up Paxton’s legal troubles throughout the campaign, portraying him as a “crooked” politician who “abuses his office for cheap political stunts.” His campaign has also taken personal jabs at Paxton over his recent divorce, including accusing him of repeatedly cheating on his ex-wife.

A third Republican, U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, is also running in the GOP primary. Though Hunt is polling in a distant third behind Paxton and Cornyn, he could still make a difference in the final outcome. Hunt has largely built his campaign around criticizing Cornyn, which could help improve Paxton’s effort to undermine him in the eyes of voters. Hunt’s presence also significantly increases the chances that there will be a runoff in the GOP primary, which is triggered when no candidate secures more than 50% support in the first round of voting.

Polls have shown Paxton leading the race, though coming in well below the threshold to avoid a runoff. Democrats generally view Paxton as more beatable than Cornyn, who has been dominant in statewide races for more than two decades.

Voting in both primaries begins Feb. 17 and runs through March 3. If necessary, a runoff would be held at the end of May.